The calm before the most popular PTA fierce battle

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Calm before PTA battle: more than 50% of the leaders supported Tianma how to go empty. PTA (purified terephthalic acid) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Zhengshang exchange") is a variety with relatively low activity in the domestic futures market. The total position of 140000 hands is considered as the middle and lower reaches among the nearly 19 trading varieties. However, behind the bland, PTA long and short funds are surging

Zhejiang Tianma holds 50% long positions

the position report released by Zheng Shang shows that the total positions of PTA contracts yesterday were 140400. In this small number of positions, the funds on the seats of Zhejiang Tianma futures account for the majority. Data show that the seat held 33200 PTA long positions yesterday, accounting for 47.3% of the total long positions

the long positions of this position are mainly concentrated in the 0809 contract, reaching 32700 hands. These positions were established from July 17, with only eight trading days

according to the data, on July 16, Zhejiang Tianma futures held only 135 long positions, and on the same day, the seat also held 4840 empty orders. On July 17, there was a "sudden change" in the position of the seat - an increase of 17156 multiple orders and a decrease of 3950 empty orders. In the following five trading days, the position of the seat changed little, maintaining more than 17000 orders and 900 empty orders. Last Friday, in order to ensure the normal conduct of the experiment, the bulls of the seat made another effort to increase the number of multiple orders by 8008, pushing the number of multiple orders to 25200. Yesterday, the majority positions held by private enterprises in the industry increased by 7553 to 32700. Although the seat also increased some empty orders in these two trading days, the increase was small, reaching only 1853

while Tianma futures substantially increased the number of orders, the PTA futures price fell to a certain extent. On July 17, the contract price of pta0809 was 9530 yuan/ton, compared with 9150 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 4%. According to the "member position analysis system" of Shanghai Liangmao, the current floating loss of the seat fund is up to 18million yuan

bullish good funds are long against the market

"as far as I know, there are no common large investors in these long funds." An employee of a futures company in Zhejiang pointed out to China business news that "the sources of funds are relatively scattered, most of which are hoping to win short-term returns and intervene under the stimulation of hazy good news."

the hazy positive mentioned by the above people refers to the recent rumors in the market that the state may introduce a new policy of textile export tax rebate. It is said that the export tax rebate rate of textiles may be increased by 2 percentage points, and the export tax rebate rate of clothing may be increased by 4 percentage points. Although rumors have not been confirmed, market is still full of the expectations

and improve the operability and deterrence of legal liability. "If the state does increase the export tax rebate of textiles and clothing, it will be of substantial benefit to PTA, because the increase of tax rate will partially alleviate the operating pressure of downstream enterprises, thus increasing the demand for PTA." An analyst of Chengdu Beite futures pointed out

however, the hazy good news did not support PTA prices. Driven by the decline in crude oil prices and the sharp decline in PX prices of PTA upstream products, PTA futures prices also fell

"although the funds on Zhejiang Tianma futures continued to increase their holdings of multiple orders against the market trend, the influence of these multiple orders on the futures price was weakened under the pressure of reality." The above Zhejiang futures company pointed out

concentrated positions increase variables

although the substantial increase in the number of orders held by the funds on Zhejiang Tianma futures seats did not push up the PTA futures price, the highly concentrated positions bring great variables to the future trend of PTA futures price

according to the measures for the management of futures trading risk control of Zhengshang exchange, the unilateral position of members of futures companies in a non delivery month PTA contract shall not exceed 45000 hands (the total unilateral position is less than 300000 hands), while Tianma futures' position in pta0809 contract has reached 32700 hands, and there is little room for further expansion. Therefore, market participants expect that these positions will be gradually reduced in the next one to two weeks, which may lead to substantial fluctuations in PTA prices

"If these long positions can not get the cooperation of favorable factors and start to reduce their positions rapidly, the PTA futures price may fall sharply. In November last year, a similar situation occurred. The long positions increased their positions significantly by taking advantage of the hazy benefits. Later, their expectations failed. In the process of reducing their positions significantly, the PTA futures price fell rapidly. If there is good news support, the long positions may continue to increase their holdings of multiple orders, and then look for opportunities to close their positions after the prices rose Yes, and in the process, the futures price may rise very quickly. " Lu Zhenming of Shanghai East Asia Futures pointed out that, "Or the market fundamentals are relatively calm, and long funds are forced to raise the price. It is expected that more funds will follow up with a view to successfully realizing high position closing in ASTM d4595 (1) 986" tensile test method for geotextiles and related products ". In a word, the excessive concentration of long positions will lead to an increase in PTA price fluctuation in the future. Investors should pay attention to risks when participating."

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